Can you say political sea-change? Have you seen it coming? When is a loss -- even a politically horrendous one, suddenly a stunning victory that leads to serious political realignment?
I'm thinking September 22nd with the vote on the so-called private member's bill to abolish the long-gun registry. This legislation is a GOVERNMENT bill in everything but name. It tugs at this Prime Minister's heart strings. (Yes, he actually does have one.)
There will be a lot of damage done to at least two political parties: first and foremost to the New Democrats as their supporters in the cities puke their guts out at the loss of the LGR, and more importantly, vent their disgust at the polls for the way in which Jack will have handled this. My guess is a 10-15 seat loss for the NDP in the next election in major urban centers.
Then we come to the party that never met a legally-owned loaded gun it didn't like. The Conservatives don't need to whip the vote. They've already gotten the message -- loud and clear from the PMO. The loss of the long-gun registry will simply play into the overall perception of the direction this Prime Minister is planning to continue to take the nation in. Harper sees that as a plus. Yours truly regards it strategically speaking as a net minus.
Bring on the vote -- and the serious political consequences.
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Ronald, I agree with your logic. I see the Cons even possibly trying to somehow back off on this vote as it will resonate into many many more Liberal voters.
ReplyDeleteParnel
Parnel,
ReplyDeleteThis should be a confidence test. Jack should find his leadership instead of letting individual MPs hold sway over the party on such an important national issue. But failing that, we Liberals will have it in our pocket for the election.
It may not get us government if we wait too long -- but it WILL GET US URBAN NDP SEATS!
Provided our whip does his job. Lately he hasn't been all that successful. Nevertheless the NDP are going to own this big time and Layton already knows this.
ReplyDeletePeter,
ReplyDeleteWe'd better damned sure make sure that Jack and the NDP exclusively get to wear this. IF any of our MPs don't show for the vote (or do but don't get into line), they should immediately be expelled from caucus and rejected as Liberal candidates in the next election. That should be made clear to ALL OF THEM, PRONTO.
Oh yeah. We're agreed on that. Toe the Party line or die in this case !!
ReplyDeleteTake a look at what I have running as well:
Politics Canada
On a related topic
ReplyDeletehttp://forums.delphiforums.com/PCan/messages/?msg=79.1
Nanos
ReplyDeleteConfirms Tory-Lib Tie
The Liberals are 91% urban ridings for many reasons. How many ridings do Liberals hold West of Ontario?
ReplyDeleteThe LGR is a national issue? When did the act of a sociopath in Quebec against 14 women rationalize this Liberal over reaction?
The Liberal strategists used this tragedy to paint the Reform as gun loving radicals that are not Canadian.
The Democrats are not a wing of the Liberal Party. Layton is playing this very well. Two of the Democrats were close races with Liberals and they have nullified the Liberal vote in Ontario.
Liberals enacted a boondoggle that costs in excess of $ 50 million per year that does not save a single life.
Police Chiefs are political appointees and have muzzled their front line staff.
Did the Ethics Commissioner raise a red flag regarding the donations by the software company for the Gun Registry to the Police Chiefs annual gala event?
The other seats that have Conservatives in a close second will not flip.
The Vaughan Liberal running for Mayor is another setback as was the Democrat.
The vote will be close but the Liberals will fall short.
The net result many Liberals will lose their seats including Easter, Holland in 2011.
"Liberals enacted a boondoggle that costs in excess of $ 50 million per year that does not save a single life.
ReplyDelete"
That is an absolute and complete LIE
Every source available says the cost per annum is between 3 and 4 $million.
How long do we have to put up with this kind of lying before the Moderator does his job ????
CanadianSense,
ReplyDeleteAgain, respectfully we disagree. I would rather win in the House on the numbers and maintain the long-gun registry but who knows how it will play out on September 22nd.
Others -- perhaps far more strategic than yours truly would rather have the "issue" for the "general".
Liberals may pay a price in the rural ridings but wouldn't it be a gas if Jack's failure to whip the vote led to strategic voting in impressive numbers in urban ridings. That could lead to a Liberal government. It's not impossible, is it.
Liberals may pay a price in the rural ridings? Did you miss the fact they are 91% urban already and this latest stunt to play wedge politics with the Democrats in the urban ridings is a prime example.
ReplyDeleteIt is comical to suggest they can't lose the few remaining seats they hold in rural Canada.
As I said earlier the Democrats that were in close races with Liberals are most likely to roll over. The races between Democrats and Conservatives won't see the same pattern.
The Democrats are playing this well by letting their vulnerable (recent pick ups in 2008) accept the Liberal boondoggle to keep their seats in Ontario Sudbury, Thunder Bay.
Liberals tried a similar stunt with the Rae motion demanding tax funded abortions in the Congo instead of pushing for more help for the women and children in the third world. Liberals tried to divide the Conservative caucus, it failed and he went on the CBC to apologize for having a "bad day at the office".
I have lost count how many times he has appeared on national television threatening, backing down and blaming our PM for the inability of Liberals to get their act together.
Voters are tuning out because of the games to played 24/7 and each party is responsible. The media in Toronto can't lift the Liberals.
Look to Rob Ford's polling numbers and look at the implosion of the Liberals in every province. Liberalism is retreating in Europe, American and Canada.
Thank you for promoting David McGuinty to get more face time in Question Period, it will only boost the Ontario numbers (for the conservatives).
You have partisans, loyalist debating the merits of the wedge politics being played by a political party that has 30 MPs unable to vote to risk an election.
The balance sheet and leadership numbers are facts that can't be spun regardless of the tea leaves you consume.
When are you going to accept reality of voter disengagement with Ignatieff?
Liberals enacted a boondoggle that costs in excess of $ 50 million per year that does not save a single life.
ReplyDeleteI wish these blogs had the kind of controls available on Delphi. Then you could edit out these outright lies that the Tory trolls love to push.
The cost of the LGR is under $4 million a year according to a number of Govt sources including the RCMP.
Why do the Trolls insist on lying about it ?
Peter,
ReplyDeleteAll of us make our points. Some factual, some not. Some deceptive, some beyond the pale. But blog readers are not idiots. They know BS when they see it. IF I spent my whole day rebutting all the falsehoods I see posted, I wouldn't get any work done.
As for CanadianSense, well, that's a view of the political world that I do not share. We disagree on pretty much everything but we amuse each other...what can I say.
"As for CanadianSense,"
ReplyDeleteYou know he reminds me so much of another idiot on 308. BC Voice Of Unreason. This guy could just be a clone or an alternate login he has.
Actually a total waste of time and spewer of PMO "talking points" which he doesn't even get right.
Now Guys,
ReplyDeletePlease do me a favour: if you're planning to have had it at each other but good, kindly do it over at 308.
Éric is much better at moderating than yours truly!!!
Ronald the figure of $ 4 million is the annual savings when the RCMP took it over. It is NOT the operating costs of the program.
ReplyDeleteI don't believe you have challenged me to provide the back up as I have on many occasions to you regarding my sources.
Just like the $ 2 million price tag that was $ 57k on the reflective effect, the media are not doing a good job with the facts.
I won't also won't feed into the personal attacks that you don't want.
Page 13 Table 1
http://www.rcmp-grc.gc.ca/pubs/fire-feu-eval/eval-eng.pdf
I don't expect an apology as we have been civil in our different views.
You are free to moderate, ignore, direct the personal attacks to other sites as you are the host.
Nik's blog was ruined by personal ad hominem attacks and link dumps.
The report does admit that the registry costs over $20 million per year, not the paltry four million the Chiefs of Police claimed earlier this year. The goal must be public safety, and the report implies that it is more important to focus on ordinary citizens who own firearms because they might commit suicide than on violent criminals.
http://www.nfa.ca/police-and-registry-what-are-facts
Canadian Nonsense
ReplyDeleteThe cost you quote is for the entire gun program !!
Not for the Long Gun Registry. So you want to scrap the ENTIRE gun control program then. No controls on hand guns, no control or licensing, nothing !!
Figures you're a US wannabee !! That ain't CANADA, get used to it !!
The report does admit that the registry costs over $20 million per year
ReplyDeleteSo now we've dropped from over $40 million to $20 million. Can't seem to keep his figures straight??
Plus that is the cost of the entire program of which the LGR is only a small part.
Does anybody here sense a smell of desperation on somebodies part?? Aren't the PMO "talking Points" clear on this??
Let's see here ?
ReplyDeleteLGR costs about $4 million a year to operate.
CPC blew $130 million last year on advertising, majority for their EAP. And by inference public funds used to advertise themselves.
Bad move IMO
Peter,
ReplyDeleteGovernments are great at promoting themselves. That goes all the way back to Trudeau. But in light of today's polling trend, forgive me if I suggest that their efforts have not exactly been a roaring success...
I would agree with you Ron.
ReplyDeleteStill that excess really does justify condemnation?
Winners and losers last night.
ReplyDeleteOne wonders ??
I suspect that in fact the public basically could care less? Inside the "bubble" of Ottawa it may have been significant.
In Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver or Quebec City how many actually care?? I suspect very few.What was in place Tuesday is still in place. Despite all the sturm und drang nothing has changed. Protections put in place a long time ago are still there.
But this represents something far more important. First major defeat for the Harper Govt. Oh they are going to say it wasn't but it amazes me how fast the Liberals got out their requests for funds!! Within minutes. 7:13 the Email is timed !! Wonder how fast the CRAP where with theirs??
Quote:
Just moments ago, Michael Ignatieff led Parliament’s opposition to defeat the Conservative bill that would have killed Canada’s long-gun registry.
This is your win.
One I will take thank you ! Look forward to tonight's "At Issue" !