As an economist, I'll bet that this Prime Minister if he could have his druthers would like to be known for some innovative economic theory which his government could put into practice to quell the recession. Economic malaise is often a highly resistant enemy.
But that's not what I see in his future. Until now, Hillary Rodham Clinton seemed to be the person most likely to wear the glass ceiling syndrome into the history books. But fortunately for her, a new contender stands ready to inherit the crown.
Stephen Harper has done everything short of turning himself into a monkey but to no avail. He is enjoying a thrilling roller coaster ride in the polls only to inevitably find himself once again on a predictable down slope. Too bad the guy isn't overly fond of skiing!
To my mind, that quite literally screams GLASS CEILING. Canadians have taken the pulse of the devil they know and some indescribable force has prevented them from "pushing the button" for Harper in solid terms. We know what we've got but conversely, we also have quite an idea of what could be coming!
The man is seen as competent, diligent and single-minded. That third one's much of the trouble. You don't get the sense that Team Harper means more than one person in the shower each morning...
A prime minister in our system is always first among equals. That's a concept that seems to have escaped the present incumbent. Harper is ideally suited for a presidential system.
Let's keep an eye on the ball and see whether this PM makes it into the texts for The Harper Effect. My wager is that he's already there.
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Ronald,
ReplyDeleteEkos poll October 2008 vs 2009 show a massive rout for Liberals in Toronto. (+20%)
His QC will mean no losses. He stands to gain everywhere with every demographic except unde 25 who DON'T show up.
Voters will protect their wallets first.
The real question is when SH is no longer interested in keeping the opposition holding the balance of power he will hit the first domino.
The Liberals are in a Full retreat since Sept 1, 2009 declaration.
Again the trend and numbers don't show any gains for the Liberals at the CPC expense. The Liberals might take some close NDP seats, but any swing or close riding between Lib-CPC will fall to CPC meaning +20 seats.
CanadianSense,
ReplyDeleteI never thought I would say this but you've actually astounded this humble writer. As you know, I've never believed that when push came to shove that voters would burn the Liberals for defeating the government. Since then, lightening has indeed struck twice on that score. In short, I believe it now.
Suffice it to say that were I PM, I would never take the risk of striking the first domino -- any transparent attempt at putting the blame on the backs of the opposition under such a scenario is bound to inevitably fail. Voters are a lot smarter than that.
In other words, the Prime Minister can't poison pill before the budget nor can he tip the highly undesirable house of cards that pervades on Parliament Hill.
MPs might as well pass another bill in the HOC stipulating that the next election will immediately follow the votes on the budget or its implementation...
I'm just itching for that election. At last, we will have the common satisfaction of settling it once and for all. Somebody will come out of it with a majority and 4-5 years of relative political peace. (No need to repeat my views on that point.)
What does the CPC gain from hitting the domino they don't already have?
ReplyDeleteRight now they have COVER for being unable to do much. (Check)
Right now they have Cover for not making tough decisions to cut programs. (Check)
Right now they have the Liberals and NDP jumping at propping up the CPC to avoid an election.
Why go now?
I don't see a logical reason to remove those "excuses" earlier than absolutely necessary.
They can run to their base and explain the opposition are preventing them from fixing Gun Registry (eg)
Ronald when you are destroying your enemy you don't change your plans for a potential short term benefit.
The CPC are not a party with a long history and need time to build alliances and displace the Liberals in their strongholds.
They have substantial court cases that are worth million in GST overpayments that Elections Canada refuses to collect.
Quebec municipal, provincial, federal Liberals are in the Press in Quebec. (All bad coverage)
It would be a tactical mistake to interrupt that new taskforce with an election.
The Liberals have already capitulated from the recent line in the sand in Sudbury.
The CPC should NOT go to the Polls unless they can't delay a confidence matter.
The budget will be the REAL big issue for the opposition to prove why going to the Polls make sense. Goodluck.
In January Feb will the numbers be much worse or will the numbers be revised again upwards for a stronger recovery?
CanadianSense,
ReplyDeleteAgreed that we are into a new ballgame come spring. Also agreed that we (all three opposition parties) have to effectively make our case to the Canadian public as to why we need an election and secondly, why this government has to be replaced. (Easier said than done under current political conditions but nonetheless possible.)
If Liberals succeed, your party drops like a stone. If Liberals fail, the majority is yours for the asking and Michael is history.