A Year Of Cognitive Dissonance.

Welcome to Harper Day! You remember it well -- that's when the voting public returned this government with an increased minority. As a democrat, I bemoaned that fact but accepted the political will of the Canadian people. (The actual anniversary was last Wednesday.)

Then came the months of November and December when history was almost made but for the fact of the prorogation of Parliament by the Governor-General. No one needs to be reminded how Conservative support spiked upward during the so-called "coalition crisis".

We're seeing that again now: Ekos has the Conservative lead at fifteen points! But this Prime Minister isn't smiling. As a strategist, Harper is smart enough to know both last fall and now that voter expression is nothing more than an example of cognitive dissonance.

Think about it for a moment -- the voters want this Parliament to "work" but what does that really mean in the cruel world of real politik? It means much more of the same. Political stagnation on issues where the government is determined to hang tough (such as the environment) and ramrodding bills through the House on other matters with single opposition party support.

To my mind, that is the key element of cognitive dissonance. Another thing that should have this Prime Minister worried is how his high polling numbers will eventually translate when we finally get to an election. There is no way in hell that the Conservatives can hold a ten to fifteen point lead and they bloody well know it! Once we've gone to the polls, their support is likely to drop in the first two weeks of the campaign. Harper has to solidify the base while holding the middle.

In the final analysis, it will boil down to this: do you feel comfortable with Stephen Harper in office for potentially another four to five years? That will be the ballot question. The polls in tandem are saying "Yes!". I'm suggesting that when push comes to shove that the eventual answer will be "No".