I'm with Liza Frulla -- the former federal and Quebec cabinet minister. She says a majority is still theoretically possible and I agree. But it won't happen unless Denis Coderre and Pablo Rodriguez have found the secret to get the moderate middle in Quebec to decouple from the Bloc Québécois.
I can't tell you how many times voters have told me that they vote Bloc "because there is no other choice". The next election will be the ultimate test of the Liberal Party's Quebec organizers. They really need to dish out the red meat that can seduce soft nationalists. (What is given by the left hand can be taken away by the right -- that's the rub, wooing Quebec without provoking a backlash in English Canada about "selling out to Quebec". Not an easy trick to pull off.)
If memory serves, voters have at least three times since 1991 provided an opening for federalists but each and every time, the governing party failed to adequately pick up on its cue. In 1993, the Bloc hit a home run in the wake of the failure of Meech and Charlottetown and won 54 seats. Contrast that with the ebb tide of 2000 where they picked up only 38 seats. (In the last two elections, the Bloc won 51 seats.)
As Bill Clinton might say: KISS - keep it simple, stupid. Focus on a theme and stick to it. Then ram it home. Follow the Bloc's example, find the hot button issue that resonates with the voters. Writers Alain Noël and Myriam Fontaine* have noted how the Bloc has used slogans in each of its campaigns:
2004 - Un parti propre au Québec (literally "A party specific to Québec");*
2006- Heureusement, ici, c'est le Bloc ("Thankfully, the Bloc is here"). *
2008- Présent pour le Québec ("Present for Quebec").
Liberals need to take a page or two out of the Bloc's playbook. It can be done but it won't be easy to start letting the air out of the Bloc balloon.
Source: *The Canadian Encyclopedia.
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One of the good things the Liberal party has done is to bring its machinery up to date. Their new voter tracking software will get a workout this coming election and if thy've been able to implement its design into their model some interesting results could be achieved. For instance in ridings where the local riding association has trouble getting volunteers the software can have voter lists and phone call pitches made from other locales. That's just a basic function but becomews more valuable on election day when they can call people on the their list to remind them to vote. That an important thing to do in close ridings in particular. Of course the software does other things as well that I won't get into but it is a tool that makes the Libs more competitive than the Bloc trechnology wise.
ReplyDeleteWelcome Back,
ReplyDeleteGiven up on Nik's Blog?
It will be nice to see how polling emboldens the political parties in the next 2 week before the HOC opens.
Background Reading:Recommended
http://ces-eec.mcgill.ca/documents/Anatomy%20of%20a%20Liberal%20Defeat.pdf
Part of the blame for the party’s historic defeat in 2008 clearly rests with the leader and with the decision to focus the campaign on the green shift. The timing could hardly have been worse and Dion did a poor job of explaining the policy. However, our findings suggest that the Liberals’ problems run much deeper. It was not just the leader. The party began to lose its head start in 2004 and its core of loyal partisans has continued to shrink. Catholics and minority voters have been the twin pillars of Liberal dominance, but their support is clearly crumbling. The Liberals’ failure to own a single major issue in 2008 underlines just how serious the party’s situation has become.
"In an economic downturn, the polling suggests that demographic factors such as race, gender, and age actually don't have as much of an influence on voting behaviour when there's an economic downturn as opposed to times when things are prosperous. The parties are just going to focus on marginal swing ridings," said Mr. Nanos. "For the Conservatives, they're just going to be looking at the electoral map and thinking where can we pick up another 10 seats, not how are we going to appeal to women or middle aged men. It's going to be much more focused and strategic where the Conservatives are just going to pick a limited number of seats, holding what they have and then picking a limited number of seats to put them over the top. That's an attainable strategy for the Conservatives. It's actually quite manageable considering the resources that they have."
http://www.thehilltimes.ca
/html/cover_index.php?display=story&full_path=/2009/september/7/swing_ridings/&c=1
Canadian Sense,
ReplyDeleteThank you. I'm just not into strafing! That's why I'm over here...Nik's blog is interesting and he does his best to control the children but after a while it becomes old. Nothing against him as moderator. But he has a company to run. He can't clamp down every day.
As you know, I'm not planning to rehash all the old ground with you. We will agree to disagree. I note with interest the poll which CTV National News carried last night -- it will be interesting to see how the trend develops in Quebec. But as you have often said, one poll does not a trend make and I wholeheartedly agree.
I remain confident of a Liberal victory but I'm certainly not taking it for granted.
Hi Ron
ReplyDeleteI told you I would contribute my two bits worth so here goes.
I think we are into the campaign. The Bloc will not support the CPC and the NDP (in their heart of hearts knowing that they will never, in the foreseeable future, form the government) would much sooner see an LPC minority where they think they can have a large influence on the legislative agenda than have the current CPC majority... so the government will fall.
I don't see a legislative agenda on the horizon for the LPC, so they will try to make the campaing about leadership.. lots of fuzzy wuzzy stuff that we have been hearing from Mr. Ignatieff so far.
I anticipate a couple of undercurrents in the campaign that could work in favor of the CPC. One is that the centre/centre-right in the country will be uncomfortable with and LPC minority being held to ransom by the NDP. I have a gut feeling that Ignatieff is not to comfortable with this prospect either as he looks back to what PM Martin had to give up to get NDP support.
The other is one that your alluded to, that is what will the LPC do to cater to the Quebec vote? That could create enough backlash in the rest of country for another CPC minority.
The polls right now look like they might be trending toward the CPC (the CanWest "outlier" at about 39/28, then the CBC "dead heat" at 32.6/32.6 and not the SC poll at 35/30 but they are all over the map, so who knows.
Mr. Ignatieff does not appear to be gaining any traction yet despite the very significant economic downturn... and the recession looks like it might be bottoming notwithstanding that the stimulus package isn't really out there yet. That is not a plus for the LPC.
Given all of the above, my prognositication at the moment would be a reduced CPC minority. At around 130 to 135 seats Mr. Harper would hang around for another election. Less than that and he will not be around for another election. If Mr. Ignatieff comes back in the 90 to 100 seat range I suspect there will be a movement in the LPC to install Mr. Rae. More than 100 and he will get a second chance, likely in 2011.
Howie,
ReplyDeleteAs a former Conservative, all I can say is no one in their right mind will count out this Prime Minister. The guy always has something up his sleeve and Liberals know better than to forget that.
I imagine both of us will be looking for something transformative -- like the surprise Martin got in 2006.
(We're doing all the right things but so are the Conservatives on defense for now...who knows?)
I think we can pull it off but as another pundit has said, the first big mistake in the campaign may cost one of the teams the election. (Remember Randy and Cheryl in 2004.)
Ron, paragraph 2, I said CPC majority, meant minority.. might have been a fruedian slip.. :-)
ReplyDeleteRonald,
ReplyDeleteI don't think we had a problem. We have disagreed on many posts but did not shout over each.
A little mouse told me more bad news for the numbers in Quebec from Nik Nanos.
The internal numbers for the Liberals will be over 4 weeks old before they can pull the plug.
My prediction is the Liberals are playing a game of chicken with the Bloc and NDP.
Peter Donalo has just come out and told the NDP in Ontario they stand to lose every seat.
The Bloc look to benefit as the Liberals do in Quebec.
The internal numbers showed 10-12 seats were winnable in Quebec. If the Polls continue to plumment the seats winnable will shrink to 3-5.
In Ontario 416 is safe but 905 is not. I am not sure about 705 NDP seats.
I don't think the Liberals will double their BC share.
I think the upside is 10-20 seats if Nik confirms the big drop in QC tomorrow.
Canadian Sense,
ReplyDeleteBe careful now and don't squash that little mouse. When Pierre retires, it can drive the blue race car! It must be nice to have mice in high places. (My mood is corn ball today.)