Hey Suckers,
You guys have seen me in action for quite some time. I would have thought that you would recognize the cut of my jib by now. I haven't changed -- I'm still the guy I thought you knew so well. Oh what the hey.
You know all I really want is to stay afloat. Can't wait for winter and those Olympics. It'll be a great ego boost. What fun knowing how I hoodwinked all of you. Sticking it to you one more time will be such a delight. (Good thing you read the bill -- this time!)
Anyone for pretzels? Thanks for not lining up with the Liberals. I owe you one. But don't expect to collect. It's not really my style, remember.
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Ronald Harper is not Joe Clark. The Pretzel PM has put on his Liberal sweater vest and removed any ground beneath the Liberal Party.
ReplyDeleteYou keep delaying the study about the Anatomy of Liberal Defeat. You are hoping for a collapse of the NDP/Bloc support to stop the CPC majority.
In Toronto and Quebec voters are afraid, but outside those pockets the CPC won 57% of the ridings outside Quebec. 134/233.
The public don't blame the CPC for the Global Recession. The NDP survival skills kicked in and won't be participating in a 50% seat sale this Fall. ( The CPC may include a poison pill if they can't wait)
Jack has the ball and camera now regarding the fate of the government. I don't expect him to be giving it back anytime soon.
Of course he won't. Why would he?
ReplyDeleteI think Layton thought back to the Martin years and remembered that holding the balance of power is more fun than being the opposition has been for the last three years.
It looks to me like Mr. Harper has poor little Mr. Layton twisting in the wind. At 12% in the polls (Ipsos) he would be irrelavent in a new Parliament and be looking for a new job.
ReplyDeleteLook for Mr. Layton to find and excuse to prop up the CPC and hope for something to happen to make his support return from the LPC... and when that happens the "evil coalition" raises it's head again and that's not a good thing for the LPC.
The plus side for the LPC in this is that they don't have to be seen as de-facto letting the CPC govern while being critical out of the other side their mouth.
I still think that right now is as good as it will get for the LPC, so if Jack and his little band of cohorts deny them, it won't be likely that the LPC will "play nice" with them in the future.
Patrick Ross,
ReplyDeleteJack was all over the tube yesterday bragging how all the critics were wrong when they said he would pay for propping up Martin. He reminded us how his seat total increased in the last three elections.
Hello -- if he props up Harper (even for a nano-second) he is lighting the strategic voting fuse. That's a highly combustible mix for him to be playing with, IMHO.
Howie,
ReplyDeleteWe must not discount the Stanfield scenario. (That's probably before your time!) If the Liberals and Conservatives are bunched up when we finally get the count, I'm not sure that we Liberals won't want to make nice with the new NDP leader. (Just had to throw that one in.)
Jack has cut his own throat. His leadership is over. We are quite literally in the dying days of his tenure.
Ronald
ReplyDeleteNot before my time, I was in Grade 11 in 1967 and worked on the campaign of Liberal Doug Irwin (The Trudeau/Stanfield "Duex Nations" election) in the Red Deer riding when he was up against Bob Thompson (former Socred leader) the first time that Thompson run for the PC's. It was probably the closest the Liberals ever come to winning that riding.
You are right, if Layton is gone, all bets would be off about playing nice.
Not that is likely to matter, without substantial recovery, the NDP won't likely hold the balance of power in a minority parliament. If they are reduced to 15 seats somebody has to get 140 for them to be relevant and I don't see that happening (despite the IPSOS poll of 39/30 CPC over LPC). I still see a minority of 130 to 135 for somebody, and then the government will have to "play nice" with the Bloc. In English Canada, that won't play well for whoever is in government and would make the subsequent election very interesting.
You're assuming that the voters who voted for him in 2006 and 2008 will strategically flock back to the Liberals if he supports the Conservatives.
ReplyDeleteBut if Layton can demonstrate tangible results for his support, I wouldn't expect that to happen.
Patrick
ReplyDeleteYou could be correct, but too much sucking up to the Dippers by the Tories could move some of the centre/centre right vote back to the Libs.
Things are pretty volatile out there.
Iggy doesn't seem to gaining any traction or resonating with the electorate. Harper will stall in the 35 to 38 range if current trends play out.
Unless we get some sort of a transforming issue or event, I would expect that a "do-over" from last year will yeild substantially the same result, but with the Tories down to around 135, the Dippers down a lot to about 15, the Bloc will hold at about 45, leaving the Libs at about 110.
That would be enough of a gain for Iggy to justify hanging around for another election. Harper might hang on saying "Considering the economy and all, thats pretty good". Layton will be gone. Duceppe has his job for as long as he wants it.