I'll say one thing for the Conservatives -- they won't have it complicated when they're back in opposition. Anyone with a problem in Quebec will know exactly what to do after the election: contact Maxime Bernier, The Go To Conservative.
Conservatives won't have to worry about straying from the party line or mixed messages coming out of the mouths of MPs. Kind of hard to do that when you're a caucus of one.
At least it will be fun for Max. His political rehabilitation is assured. Of course, he better back the right horse in the leadership race but I suspect Max is sophisticated enough to see the profile of the Alberta Clipper on the horizon...
Not that it will do them any good mind you. A newly elected Liberal government will be, quite literally, like a breath of fresh air. Aline made Jean's day by saying: "Four more years!" That sounds just about right to me.
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Ronald,
ReplyDeleteWhen you have a moment come have a look at my blog regarding the elephant in the room. I have not seen the Quebec Ad with Trudeau, will you give me an update on their value.
Regarding your hints in Quebec "shifting ground", can you make it less cryptic for us luddites outside la belle province?
http://canadiansense.blogspot.com/
Did you have a chance to review the Paper regarding the anatomy of the Liberal Defeat yet?
CanadianSense,
ReplyDeleteIt's been a very long day. My apologies. I'm stuck with legal work this weekend but I will address your points (and your blog) then and also give you my impression regarding the McGill Paper.
Have a nice weekend.
You need to elect a Liberal government first. Your chances of that aren't nearly so good as you seem to suggest.
ReplyDeletePatrick Ross,
ReplyDeleteI'm a wide open-eyed optimist. The best is yet to come.
CanadianSense,
ReplyDeleteNaughty Conservatives! I'll let Justin have the last word (according to Radio-Canada) on your party's ad:
Justin Trudeau a affirmé avoir depuis découvert les capacités politiques de son chef, s'excusant presque de ses propos d'il y a trois ans. « Si je le critiquais de manquer de sagesse, quand je regarde mes propos aujourd'hui et tout le tollé que ça peut soulever, même trois ans plus tard, hors contexte [...], je suis prêt à admettre que c'est peut-être moi qui ai manqué de sagesse », a dit le député de Papineau.
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On the Quebec "shifting ground": IMHO, the situation is fluid with significant but nonetheless tepid support for the Bloc as we take today's political snapshot. Quebecers are looking for a reason not to hit the usual Bloc "default" button.
The Conservatives are out of the running by choice and political inclination -- as you've said, Ontario is where the action is for them.
Liberals, on the other hand, are presented with an electoral opportunity. I have some ideas on how to make the most of it. We will do better this time around.
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On the McGill Paper:
Visible minorities: I expect a significant Liberal uptick. Stranded Canadians in often dangerous foreign lands and mediocre to incompetent consular services are a dangerous mix for this government going into a campaign;
Catholics: No argument here -- erosion as a Liberal voting bloc has taken place. However, I would also suspect that the same can be said of Protestants as a Conservative bloc but perhaps to a lesser extent;
Party identification: we will recover in this election cycle. Meanwhile, 40% of the pie will remain up for grabs. Watch the Conservative second choice number as well;
Issue Ownership: Conservatives have a built-in advantage on the issues of the economy and jobs. Health care is a toss up in my opinion. Our job will be to build on our growing momentum related to increasing unemployment and seize the economy as an issue from the Conservatives. Watch for the platform. It will be a doozy.