Hollinm,
I thought I would attempt to explain why I think the Coalition strategy will not work this time. I could be right on target or completely in left field but here goes:
The Prime Minister is once again looking at political reality through a faulty lens. Harper is attempting to transfer an electorally winning formula (which he did not use) to a given set of facts on the ground that are no longer sufficiently similar to the previous political dynamic.
The PM is not one for changing variables but I am. Point One - Stéphane Dion is no longer leader of the Liberal Party. That makes all the difference in the world. I have nothing but the highest respect for Mr. Dion but let's face it, the country found him wanting as a potential prime minister. That is more than an insignificant nuance. Point Two - We are no longer in a formal coalition environment: there is no signed written agreement, or even verbal understanding between the parties. This is huge.
Under the former scenario, a common position was negotiated prior to a pending non-confidence vote. Today, each party will be making its own decision without an agreed upon common set of principles. The reasons for voting down this government will vary from one party to the other.
More importantly, we won't be going into the campaign with even a loose alliance. There will be no prior deal-making of any sort. Once the seat count has been shaken out (after the voters have spoken) only then will negotiations begin, if necessary, to form a potential multi-party deal that can command the confidence of the House.
In other words, the Conservative strategy will take flight no better than your average lead balloon...we won't see polling with Conservatives ten to twenty points in the lead.
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Canadian Sense,
ReplyDeleteAs to your points:
1) See above.
2) This is as good as it gets for any of the parties. Time to go. Agreed that the CPC will have a huge financial advantage and greater membership turnout at the polls.
3) A wash -- the opposition has done little to no damage as long as the recovery is not clearly demonstrated as having firmly and unmistakably taken hold.
4) Granted, unless some manila envelopes suddenly surface mid-campaign. Been known to happen...
5) Yes, we are dealing with inside baseball. But breakout potential to the masses is always a possibility on any given issue.
6) Again, in every election, some party always ends up getting "punished". No one can predict beforehand what judgment will be rendered by the voters on such a narrow point. Highly speculative and theoretical during the best of times. Your guess is, quite literally, as good as mine.
Excellent Post, but WE don't decide the narrative. The CPC will paint a picture and remind voters the opposition publicly denied a "plan" was in place and subsequently decided six weeks after the last election to replace the government.
ReplyDeleteIgnatieff signed and endorsed the coalition. I won't need to link his support and than flip flop. It will be in the ADS.
Voters are cynical and don't trust politicians to keep their promises.
The opposition will NOT deny the potential for another coalition(Agreement whatever you want to call it). Even if they did a small per centage of voters won't believe them.
The CPC will remind voters the Liberals spent 4.7 Billion trying to hold onto power and will do it again when we are in a fragile recovery with a substantial deficit.
If this we focus on the economy, the CPC win. Their is not a SINGLE file the LPC have a leadership position.
Please post a correction if I am wrong.
Toppling Conservatives Now a Strategic Error for Liberals Tuesday September 01st 2009
http://democraticspace.com/blog/2009/09/toppling-conservatives-now-a-strategic-error-for-liberals/#comments
Ronald another article and with a Harris Decima
ReplyDeleteRonald,
I have no joy in watching this unfold as I have predicted. I would have preferred a different out come but the Polling is leaning to the CPC with weeks before we have the opposition day.
Poll in tow.
Harper is slowly recovering. Iggy was the only person who had NET positives in January.
He was given an opportunity to show Canadians a new Liberal Party. A party interested in the long game and for the benefit of Canada.
One narrative the CPC have been attacking him with is his arrogance and desire he is in it for himself. (CTV and CHCH tv ads are back on)
----------------------------
According to the survey, 50 per cent of respondents thought Ignatieff was wrong to declare his party will no longer prop up Stephen Harper's minority Conservative government. Only 38 per cent thought he was right.
An overwhelming 73 per cent said an election is not needed this fall; only 21 per cent thought it necessary.
That may help explain why voters have veered from a net positive opinion of Ignatieff to a net negative impression.
Forty-one per cent of respondents said they have a negative impression of Ignatieff - a jump of 15 points since March. Thirty-nine per cent had a favourable impression, down six points.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5gTb_7ZvFccsN4YO0JbZaGJthj5NA
CanadianSense,
ReplyDeleteNo one was expecting the voters to jump for joy as soon as the Liberals took a decision. All of this is meaningless. You know that better than any of us...watch how the campaign plays out - the performance of the leaders will serve as a rudder that will either attract or repel voters.
I expect a strong Conservative, Liberal and Bloc campaign. The NDP is a party in transition and its vote will ultimately reflect that.
Michael has to give the masses a reason to line up behind him. For many people, Harper is the choice by default as he represents the status quo. Liberals have to move some of that soft support into their column. It can be done, it must be done to win. Everything quite literally depends on how Michael performs. Tearing down this Prime Minister won't do it for him. He has to make his own reputation in the minds of the electorate and then convince them to give him a shot. A tall order for a rookie leader but I for one will keep the faith. As Chretien would say, "hang on, it's going to be a hell of a ride!"
Did you ever think it is not about up to the Liberal leader?
ReplyDeleteYou have never responded to the article I linked about Anatomy of the Liberal Defeat or I have missed your rebuttal.
This is the basis of my "incrementalism" prospects for the CPC. The next election (IF) its called and 12 MP's don't forget to show up.
http://ces-eec.mcgill.ca/documents/Anatomy%20of%20a%20Liberal%20Defeat.pdf